Ohio Holiday Retail Sales to Grow 3.1 Percent, To $32 Billion;
Sales Spurred by Strong Job and Wage Growth
The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants’ holiday sales forecast from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center projects an increase in Ohio 2025 holiday sales of 3.1 percent with total sales of $32 billion, up from the 2.5 percent relevant retail sales growth experienced during the 2024 holiday season.
- The Economics Center forecasts a 3.1 percent increase in Ohio relevant retail spending for the 2025 holiday season compared to the 2024 season, with total sales of nearly $32.0 billion.
- Online shopping continues to be a growing component of retail sales, although growth has stabilized since the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth in nonstore retail sales, which includes online and mobile shopping, has exceeded overall retail sales growth in Ohio since 2013.
- Employment in Ohio from January through August of 2025 was 0.9 percent higher than the same period in 2024. Additionally, wages and salaries in Ohio have increased by approximately 4.8 percent between 2024 and 2025.
- Consumer sentiment has begun to trend downwards after partially recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Inflation was high following the COVID-19 pandemic, but has started to cool somewhat. After falling for two years straight, year-over-year inflation in September of 2025 increased to 3.1 percent.
- The Economics Center projects that the State’s three largest metropolitan statistical areas will again account for more than half (55.5%) of estimated relevant retail sales this holiday season.
- Economics Center forecasts indicate that six of the nine metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in Ohio will experience an increase in relevant retail sales during 2025 holiday season compared to 2024. The Akron and Mansfield Metropolitan Statistical Areas are expected to see declines in their relevant retail sales, while holiday spending is expected to remain unchanged in the Toledo Region.
